Welcome to the first installment of a brand new semiannual series titled “World Surf League Predictions”. Readers and followers already know that we’re the planet’s authority on event picks and predictions for the WSL World Championship Tour (WCT). We outrank all other outlets in making educated picks to help bettors and fantasy players make their wagers and selections. We’re also super modest, apparently. The goal of this new series however, is to check-in on the state of affairs regarding the WSL. We’re publishing one after the mid-season cut, and another upon the conclusion of the WSL WCT Finals each September. In addition to quick picks on the remaining events, we will analyze the likelihood of other occurrences as they pertain to the WSL. In addition to actionable betting lines for each event (sign-up to wager) we present proposition bets (aka “prop bets”) on potential eventualities. Whether or not the prop bets become actionable will depend on how quickly Alt Sports Data gets their robust suite of WSL betting odds to sportsbook operators in the USA. Until then, read below to find out what will happen in the World Surf League between now and September 16/2023.
*Check back often as we will update the odds when necessary between May and September 2023.
Predictions for the Remainder of the 2023 World Surf League WCT Season After the Mid-Season Cut
Quick Picks for Remaining WCT Events 2023
Surf Ranch Pro Winner:
- Men: Filipe Toledo (view more)
- Women: Caitlin Simmers
Surf City El Salvador Pro Winner:
- Men: Gabriel Medina
- Women: Tyler Wright
VIVO Rio Pro Winner:
- Men: Yago Dora
- Women: Tatiana Weston-Webb
Corona Open J Bay Winner:
- Mens: John John Florence
- Womens: Carissa Moore
SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro Winner:
- Men: John John Florence
- Women: Bettylou Sakura Johnson
Quick Pick for Rip Curl WSL Finals 2023
- Men: Filipe Toledo
- Women: Tyler Wright
Will John John Florence Make the WCT Top 5 for Rip Curl WSL Finals?
YES (-300) / NO (+300)
The moneyline is set at -300 (or 70% probability) that John John will sneak into the Top 5 in time to compete in the Rip Curl WSL Finals in September. We don’t like his odds for a podium finish at the Surf Ranch Pro, the Surf City El Salvador Pro, nor the VIVO Rio Pro, but he’s a shoe-in at J-Bay and Tahiti. Unless of course the next prop bet below comes to fruition.
Will John John Florence Miss an Event Due to Injury Before the Rip Curl WSL Finals?
YES (EVEN) / NO (EVEN)
We hate to put this out there, but the odds on JJF missing at least one of the next five events is set at EVEN, which in Vegas means it’s a 50/50 flip of the coin. John John has been plagued with knee problems since 2019 yet he’s been pushing as hard as ever. Can his knees really hold up through the air requirements of the Surf Ranch and/or Rio?
Will Kelly Slater Make it Into the WCT Top 10 Before the Rip Curl WSL Finals?
YES (-400) / NO (+300)
Look for Slater to take advantage of his Wildcard gift card from the WSL after not making the mid-season cut at the Margaret River Pro. With a strong performance at J-Bay and Tahiti we expect to see the GOAT back in the WCT elite (Top 10) even though he’ll fall short of the Top 5.
Will Italo Ferreira Throw a Tantrum and Break a Board During a Live WCT Stream?
YES (-450) / NO (+1000)
When it comes to throwing baby tantrums the baby-oiled Brazilian is the John McEnroe of professional surfing. Having fallen from glory and sitting at No.16, a frustrated Ferreira is a shoe-in for bettors who wager on him to break another one of his T.Patterson pro models after a heat loss. These odds remain live through until the conclusion of the Rip Curl WSL Finals (which he won’t make it to).
Will Filipe Toledo Finally Catch and Make a Massive Contest Barrel at Teahupoʻo?
YES (+150) / NO (-300)
Filipe Toledo has almost become the most well-rounded surfer in the world. Almost. The chink in his armor is heavy Pipe, and Teahupoʻo. The latter is an especially deep thorn in his side as critics (including yours truly) are convinced that the World Champion is too scared to pack a proper Chopes barrel. His infamous waveless heat a few years back, backed by a myriad of other embarrassing performances at the contest site are proof in the pudding. If Toledo wants to remove the asterisk next to his name as one of the best surfers on the planet, he needs to charge Teahupoʻo at some point during the contest period (Aug 11-20). Is this the year he does it? With “YES” odds of +150 (or 40% likelihood) it’s a big fat MAYBE.
Will HOME DEPOT be Added as a Last Minute Sponsor for the 2023 Rip Curl WSL Finals?
YES (-110) / NO (+105)
Everyone had a chuckle at Australian ladder company, Bailey Ladders, being a headline sponsor for the World Surf League’s Australian leg of the 2023 season. But with their audience soaring from 1,899 to 2,132 Followers on Instagram after the Margaret River Pro were certain big brands from the home-and-garden category have taken notice. We predict that the biggest player of them all will throw big bucks to have their logo slapped up on the podium backsplash at Lower Trestles.
Orange jersey, anyone?
Will Gabriel Medina Make a Shock Retirement Announcement by September 16th?
YES (+225) / NO (-500)
Everyone likes to talk about an impending Kelly Slater retirement announcement, but he isn’t going anywhere seeing as his WSL WCT wildcard spot puts him in position to make the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. What few are considering, is the possibility of 3 X World Champion Gabriel Medina calling it quits after the 2023 season. Where are we getting this from? Gabriel Medina has stated on more than one occasion (on WSL broadcasts) that his goal at the beginning of his WSL career was to win three World Titles. He has accomplished that. While after a slow start to the 2023 season, he won the Margaret River Pro, and will likely make a run at the Top 5 to make the Rip Curl WSL Finals in September. If he does and wins (currently +900) that will give Medina four Titles. He can walk away on top like no one else has done before. That kind of thing is important to the proud Brazilian. If Medina doesn’t make the Top 5, it will be because he is over it, and will move on to enjoy his Instagram life (which looks pretty damn amazing).
Will Stephanie Gilmore Announce Her Retirement by September 16th?
YES (-300) / NO (+1000)
After slapping all naysayers (and betting odds) in the face with her marathon run to win the 2022 Rip Curl WSL Finals, the most stylish surfer on the WCT (women’s and men’s) has nothing left to prove. Whether she makes it to the Top 5 for September or not, we predict that the 8 X Women’s World Champion will announce her retirement from the WCT by September 16th.
*Bookmark this page as we will update the odds when necessary between May and September 2023.