The kerfuffle over the 2023 Surf Ranch Pro is forgotten now that the World Surf League (WSL) has gifted Felipe Toledo the win over Griffin Colapinto at the Surf City El Salvador Pro. The correction came just in time as the World Championship Tour (WCT) heads to Brazil. Had there been controversial scoring against any Brazilian Erik Logan and friends would have to hire a security entourage bigger than the WCT roster. On that note, will WSL judges dare push a non-Brazilian to the podium in Saquarema? Perhaps a better question would be in regards to whether or not a non-Brazilian has what it takes to compete at the long and often-mushy left. Not only do Brazil’s WCT elite have the wave dialed with an unmatched air-game, they have hundreds-of-thousands of screaming fans to intimidate the Australian, American, and Hawaiian (etc.) contingent. That being said, they don’t have a complete clean-sweep at this wave. John John Florence won the event back in 2016 when he was still motivated to claim a World Title. Who will win the 2023 edition with just three events left before the Top 5 are decided for the WSL Finals in September? Check out our VIVO Rio Pro odds and predictions below to find out.
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Betting Preview for the WSL WCT VIVO Rio Pro Men’s Surfing Competition Running from June 23 to July 1 2023
Where: Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
When: Waiting period runs from June 23 to July 1, 2023
Betting Lines: View WSL betting odds
Streaming Broadcast: WSL website / WSL YouTube
Sponsor: Presented by Corona
Online Commentary: BeachGrit
FAVORITES
Filipe Toledo: 4/6 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.2
Felipe Toledo has won 4 of the 8 Rio Pro events that he has competed in, including the last three in a row. Furthermore, he is coming off of an aggressive win at last week’s Surf City El Salvador Pro, and currently sits at the No.2 spot in the world behind Griffin Colapinto. With only 1,230 WCT points separating the two, Toledo only needs to finish one place higher than Colapinto to wear the yellow jersey. With a 50% winning percentage at the Rio Pro, the odds favor Felipe to walk away with a total of 10K in points (awarded to the winner) so he can sit pretty atop the WSL as Lower Trestles approaches. With Toledo’s achilles heel, Teahupoʻo, coming up on the schedule he knows he requires another win beforehand to secure his position. Bettors should expect nothing less than perfection from Filipe at the VIVO Rio Pro. However, the favorites below have something to say about that as they scrap it out to ensure they make the Top 5.
Gabriel Medina: 5/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.5
Gabriel Medina may finally be in the Top 5 for the season, but finding him anywhere else beyond the driver’s seat is an oddity. He may still be superhuman, but his three World Titles appear to be his kryptonite. Like with John John Florence, Medina’s motivation may be lagging now that he’s bagged more than one Championship. As a result, we don’t see him winning the 2023 WSL Finals. However, he will win events, and having never won the Rio Pro is all of the incentive that he needs to bring his A-game. Medina’s best result in Saquarema is a 3rd which he received in 2013 and again in 2016.
Italo Ferreira: 8/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.8
Italo is still stinging from his loss to Griffin Colapinto at the Surf Ranch despite surfing to most (not all) of the WSL’s scoring criteria. However, the brash Brazilian gave the WSL judges disrespectful double fingered eye-daggers at the conclusion of his last two waves in the Final. He did it twice in a row. In any other legitimate sports league (which the WSL is trying to emulate) this behavior would be met with a sanction. It would be a technical foul in the NBA or a 15-yard penalty in the NFL for unsportsmanlike conduct. Moreover, Italo has a history of this behavior. Him being penalized at the Surf Ranch Pro was the result of the WSL judging panel having enough. If you note the way he handled his 5th place departure at the following Surf City El Salvador Pro, it becomes clear that he received the message loud and clear. If Ferreira pairs his second-to-none acrobatics at Saquarema’s left with a dose of humility he will win the judging panel over with a win at the VIVO Rio Pro.
SLEEPERS
Yago Dora: 10/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.12
The 27 year old goofy-footer is having a year of unfilled potential. This potential puts in him sleeper pick territory for bettors. VIVO Rio Pro odds also favor the fact that Dora has a background of solid results at the event. In 2017 he came in 3rd as a Wildcard, which was followed by a 5th in 2018. Yago competed as an injury replacement in Saquarema in 2022 and came in 3rd once again. A win for Dora is very viable. Hedge your VIVO Rio Pro predictions with a wager on this Brazilian.
Kanoa Igarashi: 15/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.17
We went against the grain by picking Kanoa Igarashi to be the winner at the Surf City El Salvador Pro. We couldn’t help ourselves. The Japanese-American has had such an “off” year that we assumed the once (2022) WCT Top 5 surfer was destined for a win at a point break that suits his style. While he did do well at Punta Roca with a 5th place finish, it’s not the result he is capable of. Igarashi’s best result at the Rio Pro is a 5th in 2019. Again, he’s capable and is therefore a sleeper that’s worth considering when filling in your betting ticket.
LONG SHOT
Rio Waida: 20/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.21
Admittedly, we may be subconsciously selecting the Indonesian rookie as our long shot pick because his name matches that of the event. The Universe loves this kind of thing, and so does the WSL. Wouldn’t “Rio Waida Wins the Rio Pro” make for a fantastic headline on the World Surf League website at the conclusion of the event? Of course it would! To be fair, there’s more to his placement as a contender. Rio was robbed by judges in El Salvador. Given that they’re on a course correction tour, look for the panel to score Waida more fairly at this event with a few extra points here and there. His average heat score of 10.01 for the season could use it, as can his average wave score of just 2.94. Rio Waida’s best result this season is a 5th which he received at the MEO Rip Curl Portugal Pro.
2023 WSL VIVO RIO PRO MEN’S WINNER PREDICTION
Italo Ferreira gets his first win of the season by claiming the 2023 VIVO Rio Pro. Bet on it!
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