The World Surf League (WSL) World Championship Tour (WCT) midyear cut has trimmed the fat, leaving 22 surfers to enter the much maligned Surf Ranch Pro in Lemoore California. As blasphemous as the artificial freight train “wave” may be, bettors could care less about what is or isn’t pure about surfing as a sport and are instead focused on making their picks. This makes sense, as the only thing to make event interesting is to have money riding on it. As per usual, we’ve got you covered. Below is our breakdown of 2023 Surf Ranch Pro odds and predictions.
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Betting Preview for the WSL WCT Surf Ranch Pro Men’s Surfing Competition Running from May 27-28 2023
Where: Lemoore, California
Wave: Artificial
When: May 27-28, 2023
Betting Lines: View WSL betting odds
Streaming Broadcast: WSL website / WSL YouTube
Online Commentary: BeachGrit
Surfing Podcast for Post-Event Recap: SurfSplendor
FAVORITES
Filipe Toledo: 4/6 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.2
Filipe Toledo leads the pack in this list of Surf Ranch Pro favorites which is stacked with Brazilians. The fake wave suits their eerily consistent (albeit repetitive) style of surfing, and this is as true for Toledo as any. Although the current World Champ has drastically improved his power surfing and rail game, his bread and butter remains in the air and under the hood of small barrels. And that’s all the Ranch has to offer beyond excessive heat and a faint smell of manure in the air. Toledo won the event when it last ran in 2021 and came in second in 2018. He’s a vastly better surfer now, which makes a win at the 2023 event nearly a foregone conclusion. Do the others below have a shot? Keep reading.
Gabriel Medina: 5/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.7
Medina flips the script with fellow favorite Felipe Toledo when it comes to results at the Surf Ranch Pro. Medina came in second when it last ran in 2021 (Toledo won) and won the event in 2018 (Toledo came in 2nd). While critics jumped all over Medina’s slow start to the 2023 tour, they forgot that the 3-time World Champion performs at his best in the back-half of the season. He proved this already by winning the 2023 Margaret River Pro over an in-form Griffin Colapinto. Medina smells blood in the water and has his eyes on the Top 5. A win at the Surf Ranch Pro will shoot him up the rankings accordingly.
Italo Ferreira: 5/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.16
Italo Ferreira has also manufactured his surfing to suit the Surf Ranch, even more so than Toledo who has expanded his repertoire. Ferreira is having an off-year, and desperately needs a win to make his way back into the Top 5 for a shot at the 2023 WCT Championship. While he still has the equally unbearable VIVO Rio Pro to look forward to in June (where he’s a favorite) Italo needs to make his move now before a trip to San Clemente in September becomes a pipe dream.
Griffin Colapinto: 8/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.4
San Clemente California’s Griffin Colapinto makes the list of favorites, even if some suspect it’s to shove a non-Brazilian into the mix for balance. They’d be wrong in this assumption as the young Colapinto is growing into his own quite quickly and showing the world that he’s an elite performer on the WCT. After a mediocre performance at Pipe, Griffin nabbed a 2nd at Sunset Beach and a pair of 5ths (Portugal and Bells Beach) before coming in second to Gabriel Medina at the Margaret River Pro. He now has two Finals appearances for the season and would love to turn his next event into an actual win. Colapinto grew up surfing T-Street and Lower Trestles which are both solid training grounds for Kelly Slater’s Surf Ranch.
SLEEPERS
Yago Dora: 15/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.9
Dora is having another top ten year, which is highlighted so far by a 3rd place showing at the 2023 MEO Pro Portugal. The goofy-footed Brazilian has competed at both WCT events at the Ranch, coming in 5th in 2021 and 9th in 2018. He’s a legitimate sleeper pick to win the event this season.
LONG SHOT
Baron Mamiya: 30/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.17
A long shot is a long shot, and Baron Mamiya fits that bill for the Surf Ranch Pro. The young Hawaiian is having a mediocre season with few flashes of the excellence that we saw from him last season. Mamiya has won only six elimination heats this year and has a low average heat score of 10.13. Nonetheless, we like this 23 year old’s maturity. In his post-heat interview at the Margaret River Pro he recognized that he’s been surfing at just 40% of his capacity this season, and with a 5th place finish at that event we could be witnessing his return to form. Baron has the potential to win at the Ranch. He has some air-game along with the stature and physical stamina to sneak into the wave’s tight barrels without feeling the leg burn. Baron has yet to compete at Surf Ranch which makes him both a wildcard and an underdog.
2023 WSL MEO PRO PORTUGAL MEN’S WINNER PREDICTION
As expected, Filipe Toledo wins the 2023 Surf Ranch Pro
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