SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview 2024

SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview 2024

The World Surf League (WSL) Championship Tour (CT) midyear cut at the Margaret River Pro event has concluded. The remaining surfers are now off to the “Place of Skulls” in what will be a preview for the upcoming Summer Olympics surfing contest (view odds) which will be held at the same location. In addition to the eight CT men (of 22) and six CT women (of 10) who will use the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro as an opportunity to practice for the Olympics, the remainder of the field are vying for a spot on the CT Top 5 so that they get tickets to Finals Day in San Clemente this September. Simply put, this May’s event in Tahiti is high-stakes, which is why surfing betting fans are chomping at the bit to put some money down. Who do 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro odds and predictions favor? Read ahead to find out!

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Betting Preview for the WSL WCT SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro Men’s and Women’s Surfing Competition Running from May 22 to 31 2024


Where: Teahupoʻo, Tahiti, French Polynesia

When: Waiting period runs from May 22 to 31, 2024

Betting LinesView sportsbooks offering WSL betting odds

Streaming Broadcast: WSL website / WSL YouTube

Sponsors: SHISEIDO (presented by Outerknown)

SHISEIDO TahitiPro Men’s Picks


John John Florence: 4/6 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.3

Do you want to discuss odds? Then let’s talk about the odds of John John not winning at least one of two finals appearances in places that he’s arguably the best on tour at – Pipeline and Margaret River. That long shot scenario is the reality this season. JJF lost to Baron Mamiya in the finals at the Lexus Pipe Pro and lost to Jack Robinson in the finals at the Margaret River Pro. If he makes the finals here at Teahupoʻo it’s a mathematical lock in favor of Florence. However, will he make the finals? It’s a weird season, with big names found at the bottom of CT rankings. That means JJF (ranked 3rd) could face Teahupoʻo specialist Gabriel Medina (ranked 19th) once again in an early round. Medina feels slighted after what some call an over-score for JJF in their Round of 16 heat at Margaret River. A mad Medina is a dangerous Medina. He is the only thing that really stands in the way of the two-time World Champion. Despite putting up some of the best competitive performances ever seen at Teahupoʻo, John John has never won the Tahiti Pro.

Gabriel Medina: 4/6 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.19

Everyone is waiting for Gabriel Medina’s big moment on the tour in 2024. After five events he has yet to make it into the finals, but that’s expected to change for the Tahiti Pro. For one, he has made the finals at the event six times over his career, and won the contest in 2014 and again in 2018. Secondly, after having qualified for the 2024 Summer Olympics through the ISA World Surfing Games in March, he is marching into Teahupoʻo with something to prove in advance of the big show in July/August.

Jack Robinson: 5/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.2

Jack Robinson is carrying Margaret River Pro momentum into Tahiti after beating an on-fire John John Florence in the final. The 26-year old Australian also knows that the Tahiti Pro gives him an opportunity to skip over Griffin Colapinto (not a favorite) on the CT rankings to claim the pole position. Robinson is a heavy wave maestro who won the Tahiti Pro in 2023 after coming in 9th at the event in the year prior. The only thing working against Robinson, is the fact that there has never been a back-to-back winner of the Tahiti Pro since the event began in 1999. Will he defy those odds?

Kelly Slater: 8/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: Wildcard

Didn’t Kelly Slater just retire after being ousted by Griffin Colpainto at the Margaret River Pro in April? Sure, but everyone knows that Slater is likely to be gifted a wildcard. Not only has he won the event more than anyone (five times), his company Outerknown is the secondary sponsor. Since Slater missed the last swan song opportunity when he should have retired with a Billabong Pro Pipeline win in 2022, a win at the Tahiti Pro would tie a nice bow on the GOATs career. Everyone wants to see Kelly win this one.


Seth Moniz: 10/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.13

Anyone who watched the final stretch of the Margaret River Pro saw something click in Seth Moniz that brought out the Hawaiian’s fierce nature. He attacked the righthand walls of Margaret River with slicing turns that were fast and powerful. Moreover, he actually completed his waves. Having his career on the line of the midyear cut probably had everything to do with it, but it boosted his confidence and served as a reminder that he is meant for waves of consequence. Teahupoʻo is one such wave. Moniz’s best result at the Tahiti Pro Teahupo’o was a 3rd in 2019 which he lost to Gabriel Medina. Seth’s average heat score for the season thus far is just 10.93, but we expect it to be much higher by the time the window closes on the Tahiti Pro.

Kanoa Igarashi: 15/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.9

Kanoa Igarashi is not as relevant as he used to be just two CT seasons ago, but he’s not irrelevant either, especially as it pertains to this season’s Tahiti Pro. As Japan’s best shot at Summer Olympic gold in surfing, Igarashi must leverage the Tahiti Pro event as practice. That means he’ll throw himself over Teahupoʻo’s throaty ledge for the honor of his country. Few remember that Igarashi has put together decent performances in Tahiti in the past. His best results include a 5th in 2022 and a 9th in 2018. It’s nothing to write home to Huntington Beach about (well, maybe for HB) but when you look at the big picture he’s a solid sleeper pick. Kanoa’s average heat score so far this year is 12.17, with a total of 7 heat wins.


Yago Dora: 20/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.22

Yago Dora fans exhaled a sigh of relief after he squeaked through the midyear cut due to the downfall of his countrymen – the Pupo brothers. Dora is ready to fill the void left by a weakened Brazilian Storm, and a win at the Tahiti Pro would help accomplish that task. Is Yago a qualified candidate? His best results at the event include a 9th at 2018 and a pair of 5ths (2022 and 2023). He’s due for a semifinals appearance if not a showing in the final 35-minutes of the men’s division bracket.


Gabriel Medina wins the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro.

SHISEIDO TahitiPro Women’s Picks


Molly Picklum: 4/6 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.3

After two recent Round of 16 departures (at Portugal and Bells) early season standout (at Pipe and Sunset) Molly Picklum made the quarterfinals at the Margaret River Pro. In doing so, she let the field know that they’d better be ready for her return to a podium finish. Teahupoʻo is suited to her skills and style of surfing better than any other in the Women’s division at the moment. Even if Carissa Moore surprises us with a wildcard opt-in at the Tahiti Pro (which would be smart Olympics prep) Picklum remains to be the one to beat in heavy water. In her first outing at the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro the regular footed Australian came in 5th. She’s stronger, more mature, and more experienced under-pressure after just 2.5 seasons on the CT. She’s ready to take back her No.1 ranking, but she does need to get through the second favorite on this list of 2024 Tahiti Pro odds and predictions.

Caitlyn Simmers: 8/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.1

Anyone looking at the 18 year old, 5’3″ strawberry blonde from Oceanside would have no idea that she is capable of facing a wave as treacherous at Teahupoʻo. But like anyone who performs well at waves of consequence, Simmers exhibits little regard for caution. Instead, she throws everything her small frame has at whatever the CT schedule throws in her path, which includes one of the heaviest and most powerful waves in the world. Like with the other favorite above, Caitlyn has only been on the CT for 2 and-a-half years. Her experience at Teahupoʻo is limited to 2023, where she came in 2nd to Caroline Marks. Lack of experience didn’t stop her from winning the Lexus Pipe Pro in prime conditions at the start of this season, so having one Teahupoʻo event under her belt only increases her odds of a victory this time around.


Caroline Marks: 10/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.6

Caroline Marks won the 2023 Tahiti Pro. Shouldn’t the goofy footer (who is the current World Champion, btw) therefore be the odds on favorite to win? You might not say so if you’ve watched her compete this season. Despite a couple of semifinals appearances in 2024, Marks’ surfing is almost as painful to watch as Brisa Hennessy’s. It’s boxy and often awkward, even if it does get the job done from time to time. The Florida native’s average heat score for the season is 10.38, with an average wave score of 3.45 (out of 10) and a total of 9 heat wins. These aren’t the stats to bring with you to the “Place of Skulls”, but amidst an uninspired bottom half of the roster, Mark’s finds her mark as a reasonable sleeper pick.

Bettylou Sakura Johnson: 15/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.5

Bettylou Sakura Johnson has been on a downward trajectory since her strong start to the 2024 season. Still, we had her pegged as a sleeper pick at the Margaret River Pro and are content to keep her in the same position for the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro. The Hawaiian shines in powerful reef-breaks. She won’t be as shaken-up as other competitors when the wave peels back to unveil coral so jagged that it sends a Brazilian World Champ packing. But how has Bettylou performed at Teahupoʻo? There’s no record of her at the wave, as she pulled out due to injury in the 2023 edition. To get an idea of her confidence in big conditions you can watch her heat against Molly Picklum at this year’s Lexus Pipe Pro. Bettylou is a badass.


Tyler Wright: 20/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.8

Tyler Wright isn’t the surfer that she used to be. It seems that her power as a competitor may have been rooted in her “poor me” persona, because as soon as she stopped complaining about first-world problems she started dropping down the CT rankings. Still, she has a better average heat score (11.28) than half of the field in the Women’s division, and is more experienced than everyone but Tatiana Weston-Webb. Her results at the Tahiti Pro include a 3rd in 2023 and a 9th in 2022.


Molly Picklum wins the Women’s Division of the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro.

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