MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview 2024

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Odds and Predictions 2024

With the first two events on the 2024 World Surf League (WSL) Championship Tour (CT) coming down to the final few hours of their waiting periods, it seems as if we’re rolling from one contest right into the next. The Hurley Pro Sunset Beach wrapped up with Jack Robinson and Molly Picklum wins (who we named as favorites), which sends the CT to Portugal with little time to breathe. That’s exactly how fans and bettors like it, and what ASB wants to see too as we drop our MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal odds and predictions. Who will clinch the trophy in Peniche? Let’s find out!

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Betting Preview for the WSL CT MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Men’s and Women’s Surfing Competition Running from March 6-16 2024

Where: Peniche, Portugal

Wave: Supertubos

When: Waiting period runs from March 6-16, 2024

Betting LinesView WSL betting odds

Streaming Broadcast: WSL website / WSL YouTube

Online Commentary: BeachGrit

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Men’s Picks


John John Florence: 4/6 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.1

With Filipe Toledo out for the year, and Gabriel Medina not living up to expectations thus far this season, John John Florence will pretty much own the spot as the top favorite for every event on the 2024 tour, Portugal included. While JJF is leaving Hawaii without a CT win, he is wearing the yellow jersey as the rankings leader thanks to a 2nd and 5th place finish at the Pipe Pro and Hurley Pro, respectively. JJF’s past performances also validate his position as a favorite to win the 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro. As far as recent “podium” finishes are concerned, Florence came in 3rd in Portugal in 2022 and won the event in 2016. While it has been a few years since that win, JJF is in peak form and surfing better than anyone on tour.

Gabriel Medina: 5/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.26

We’re going to give 3-time CT champion Gabriel Medina one more shot at being a major favorite despite not making the CT Final 5 last season, and having a rough start to the 2024 season. If being ranked 26th doesn’t motivate the once feared competitive beast, nothing will. The hollow left-hand barreling wave known as Supertubos is an idyllic place for the Brazilian goofy-footer to bring the magic back. Medina’s notable record at Peniche includes a 3rd in 2018, a 1st in 2017, and a 2nd in 2012.

Italo Ferreira: 8/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.13

The Brazilian Storm has certainly subsided in 2024, but that’s not going to stop us from filling two-thirds of MEO Rip Curl Pro odds-on-favorites with green-and-yellow. Italo Ferreira has earned his place in Portugal accordingly, with a 3rd in 2022 and back-to-back wins in Peniche in 2019 and 2018. While Ferreira’s not the closer that he used to be, he’ll be fueled up to win in Portugal with Filipe Toledo out of his way in the campaign for the 2024 CT World Title.


Jordy Smith: 10/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.4

The World Surf League may be witnessing the return of Jordy Smith as an elite CT surfer. Journeyman Jordy has two strong results in what may be a legitimate campaign to stay in the Top 5 for the season. The South African came in 5th at the Pipe Pro and 3rd at Sunset Beach. ASB had him pegged as a sleeper pick to win the latter, and is leaving him right here for the MEO Rip Curl Pro. With nearly a decade and a half on tour, Smith has a number of excellent results in Portugal, including the following:

  • 5th in 2022
  • 2nd in 2019
  • 3rd in 2016
  • 2nd in 2014
  • 2nd in 2010

Based on the results above, we’d say that Smith is due for a win at Supertubos, no?

Frederico Morais: 15/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.17

It’s not often that Vegas odds favor Frederico Morais for any WSL event, but in this case he’s a “hometown” hero. Plus, he’s enjoying a reasonably good start to the 2024 season, which makes the 32 year old on-and-off again veteran a reasonable sleeper pick. But does the Cascais native actually perform well in Peniche? Does the 1.5 hour drive from his home to the break make good? His best result was a 5th in 2015. Otherwise, Morais’ results are all over the place with three 9th place finishes among a peppering of less inspired performances.


Caio Ibelli: 20/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.32

It’s odd that Caio Ibelli is near the bottom of 2024 CT rankings. He has put together some solid heat performances at the first two events of the season. At least it seems that he has. Regardless, Caio is one of those competitors that you can never count out, even if he’s a long shot to win the MEO Rip Curl Pro. His best result at Supertubos was a 3rd in 2019 where he lost to countryman Italo Ferreira. Honestly, 2024 is Ibelli’s last shot at being relevant on the CT. If he doesn’t get a Quarterfinal finish or better to move up the ranks, it’s ciao for Caio.


Gabriel Medina finds his mojo by winning the 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Men’s division.

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Women’s Picks


Molly Picklum: 4/6 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.1

It’s the Molly Picklum, Caitlin Simmers, and Bettylou Sakura Johnson show in the Women’s division of the CT this year, with Picklum leading the way. The gal from Terrigal, Australia has put together the two most impressive heat performances on the tour thus far this year, including the Men’s division. She came in 2nd at the Pipe Pro in prime conditions and won back-to-back titles (which we predicted) at the Hurley Pro Sunset Beach, after delivering the most memorable snap that the Women’s CT has ever seen:

Molly came in 5th in her rookie year at the MEO Rip Corl Pro in 2023, and is a strong favorite heading into this year’s edition.

Caitlin Simmers: 5/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.2

Simmers is also on fire in her sophomore year, after winning the Pipe Pro against Molly Picklum and making the Quarterfinals at the Hurley Pro Sunset Beach. The regular-footed Oceanside CA native’s small 5’3″ stature may not seem suited for Supertubos, but Simmers proved that she has no regard for physics after winning the MEO Rip Curl Pro in her rookie season.


Bettylou Sakura Johnson: 10/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.3

Bettylou Sakura Johnson had her first taste of a CT final at the Hurley Pro Sunset Beach. You’d better believe that the Hawaiian wants more. The only reason that we didn’t slot Sakura into the MEO Rip Curl Pro favorites column is that she is not yet a dominant force in fierce lefts. For instance, most of the damage she did at the Pipe Pro was at Backdoor. Bettylou has two results in Portugal, including a 9th in 2023 and a 17th in 2022. Following that math, we expect nothing less than a 5th place finish for the surfer at Supertubos, although the has a sleeper shot at the title if the left-handed break doesn’t get too heavy.

Caroline Marks: 10/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.5

The 2023 CT Women’s World Champion has started 2024 on an uneasy note, as if she knows that her Title last season was a farce. This is why Marks, who won the MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal in 2019, is not a favorite. However, the blocky-styled goofy-footer can absolutely win another in Peniche if light offshore winds backed by a pure West swell turn Supertubos on full-throttle.


Tatiana Weston-Webb: 20/1 Odds

WCT Ranking: No.7

Like many of her generation (Tyler Wright, Lakey Peterson, etc.) Tatiana Weston-Webb has fallen from grace as the new crop of young women have moved in on the CT. Still, we predict that Tati has one or two more event wins left in the sunset years of her career. Weston-Webb has weaved together a decade of stellar CT results, with the MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal accounting for a 3rd in 2023 and 1st in 2022.


Caroline Marks gets back to business by claiming her second MEO Rip Curl Pro Women’s Division title.

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