UPDATE: Looking for 2023 Margaret River Pro odds? Click here.
The recently completed Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach shook the Top 5 on the World Surf League (WSL) World Championship Tour (WCT). Kanoa Igarashi, Kelly Slater, Barron Mamiya, and Seth Moniz all lost in the Round of 32 (or earlier) which freed Filipe Toledo to shoot up the rankings to the No.1 spot. In fact, we picked Toledo to win the whole event, which is exactly what he did. Our picks are looking pretty good so far for the 2022 WSL WCT season. They’re so on-point that piggy-backers (stick to football, guys) are scraping our content right now to deliver “their” own WSL odds and picks. But alas, we’re not afraid to drop our predictions for the next event. We were locked and loaded for the moment the bell rung on Bells Beach. So what’s next? The highly anticipated Margaret River Pro is on deck and it’s going to be a banger!
There are some clearly defined favorites for this Western Australia event, be it held at Main Break, The Box, or some back-and-forth combo of the two. But if you recall, favorites don’t always win at this wild west of a wave. Remember Willian Cardoso, anyone? Us neither (we choose to forget), but it happened in 2018. Will you throw your dough behind a supposed “sure thing” or roll the dice on a sleeper or long shot for a much bigger payday? Have a look below and make your Margaret River Pro predictions accordingly.
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Betting Preview for the WSL WCT Margaret River Pro Men’s Surfing Competition Running from April 24 to May 4 2022
Where: Margaret River, Western Australia
When: Waiting period runs from April 24 to May 4, 2022
Betting Lines: View WSL betting odds
Streaming Broadcast: WSL website / WSL YouTube
Online Commentary: BeachGrit
Surfing Podcast for Post-Event Recap: SurfSplendor
John John Florence: 4/6 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.3
John John is the winningest surfer at Margaret River. He won two (2019 and 2017) of the seven WCT events that have run here in this millennia. That said, JJF is coming off of another shortfall for the season, with a loss in the Bells Beach quarterfinals to the eventual winner Filipe Toledo. He did move up to crack the Top 5 though, which makes him even more dangerous as the crew heads into Western Australia. Like with the sharks in that zone, he smells blood in the water and is ready to claim his first WCT event win of 2022.
Jack Robinson: 4/6 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.13
Jack Robinson is from Margaret River which makes hime hometown favorite as fas as odds and predictions go. He came in 9th as a wildcard at the Margaret River Pro in 2019 but that stat doesn’t do him justice. His free-surfs at The Box are a thing of legend. With a strong semifinal finish at Bells you’d better believe that he’ll be firing on all cylinders at home to solidify his spot above the WCT mid-year cut. It’s almost unthinkable to bet against Robbo at Margaret River, so what will you do?
Filipe Toledo: 5/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.1
Toledo won the Margaret River Pro in 2021. Factor in his win at the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach and it’s safe to say the Brazilian is carrying heavy momentum into one of the heaviest waves on tour. However, now that he has secured his No.1 status the biggest impediment to winning the 2022 Margaret River Pro may be his own motivation. For this event, it pales in comparison to the surfers who are fighting for their lives the tour. As alluded to above, this is the last event before the mid-year cut. Those hovering around the 22 athlete cut-line have sharpened their weapons and are ready to bleed to stay on tour. This makes the back half of the field more deadly than ever. When you also consider the strength of the sleepers (even the long shot) listed below you’ll find that Filipe has his work cut out for him. If Main Break or The Box underperform Filipe remains a strong favorite. But if the waves are large and unruly (as they can be) Filipe will rest on his No.1 ranking and take his foot off of the gas.
Kelly Slater: 10/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.4
Slater may have bowed out early at Bells but he was absolutely in form. If it wasn’t for Imaikalani deVault’s buzzer-beater Slater may have won the event. We fully stand behind the reinvigorated GOAT, perhaps not as much to call him a favorite at the Margaret River Pro, but certainly as a legitimate contender. Even at the age of 50 Kelly can win in any wave of consequence, and Margaret River delivers waves of consequence. Don’t be surprised to see this sleeper hoist the trophy by May the 4th. The force is strong with this pick.
Jordy Smith: 12/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.14
Come on Jordy – this was supposed to be your year! We find ourselves saying this about the big South African more often than not. We keep waiting for him to get out of his own way to find himself in contention for the WCT World Title at annum’s end. But after plummeting further down the rankings at Bells, Smith would just be happy to make the mid-year cut. All of that aside, Jordy is built to perform at Margaret River. He was darn close last year, coming in 2nd to Filipe Toledo. He also received a trio of fifths in 2019, 2018, and 2017 along with a 9th in 2016 and a 13th in 2015. See where we’re going with this? The Saffa has been building a proverbial house at the Margaret River Pro over the last six events. There’s only one more place to go – a first place finish. Sold? Wager on this sleeper if so.
Seth Moniz: 15/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.11
Seth started the year strong with a 2nd place finish at Pipe but has been on a downward trajectory ever since. Regardless, the young gun loves heavy water, even when it’s far from the shores of Oahu. He came in 5th at the 2021 and 2019 Margaret River Pro, feeling right at home on a wave that would typically scare someone of his physical stature.
Ezekiel Lau: 20/1 Odds
WCT Ranking: No.21
Hawaiian warrior Zeke Lau has been backed into the corner by the WCT mid-year cut. He needs a massive performance now or he’ll fall back onto the World Challenger Series. And there won’t be an Ultimate Surfer Season 2 to hand him wildcards for the 2023 tour. As aforementioned William Cardoso’s 2018 win infers, one can bully their way through to a win at Margaret River. Zeke has the physique and power surfing skill-set to do just that. Throw in some caged-animal desperation and he could pull off an upset and win this thing. The odds may be against it, but what fun is WSL betting without opportunity to win big on a long shot like this?
2022 WSL MARGARET RIVER PRO MEN’S WINNER PREDICTION
Jordy Smith finally completes the house he’s been building in Western Australia and wins the 2022 Margaret River Pro.
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