We have waited with bated breath before releasing our 2024 Summer Olympics surfing predictions. Why didn’t we drop our picks to win gold for the Men’s and Women’s shortboard divisions until this very last minute? Because the forecast for Teahupoʻo has been fickle. At first, the long range (about 3 weeks out) forecast looked great. Then just last week it was reported that waves would be in the 4-6′ range with uncooperative winds. For a minute there it looked like Brazil’s Felipe Toledo (overpriced at +1500 at DraftKings) might actually have a shot at winning gold. Maybe even Siqi Yang from China. However, things are looking up once again. At press, Surfline is calling for respectable conditions for the Men’s and Women’s Round 1 heats on Saturday, July 27:
Furthermore, brother to Olympian John John Florence is feeling fairly optimistic about the forecast for the week-long waiting period:
While things may change yet again, there is enough of an optimistic outlook to make Summer Olympics surfing predictions with statistical confidence. That’s why you’re here at Action Sports Betting (ASB), the first action sports wagering predictor in America. While others have joined the party over the past year, ASB continues to boast the best overall record for WSL (CT and Challenger Series) picks and predictions in addition to one-off events like the VANS Pipe Masters. And unlike other affiliate platforms out there, we are free from the influence of artificial intelligence (AI) nor are we beholden to make picks based upon what sportsbook partners want us to do. We are hardcore surfing fans making highly educated picks and predictions on the surfing portion of the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. Who will win gold? Let’s find out.
*All Olympic surfing odds are listed as moneyline wagers. Odds will be updated as the Summer Olympic Games approach, and will also be updated in “real-time” after each Round on the schedule is completed. Check back often for updates.
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Updated Picks and Predictions for the Summer Olympic Games Men’s and Women’s Surfing Competition Running from July 27 to August 5 2024
Where: Teahupoʻo, Tahiti, French Polynesia
When: Waiting period runs from July 27 to August 5, 2024
Betting Lines: View all Summer Olympic surfing odds
Streaming Broadcast: NBC (including Peacock)
Summer Olympics Surfing Predictions | Men’s
FAVORITES
John John Florence: +350
Representing: USA
WCT Ranking: No.1
Even though DraftKings has John John Florence (+350) listed under Gabriel Medina (+200) and Jack Robinson (+320) he is a clear favorite in the eyes of ASB experts when Teahupoʻo gets big. JJF is coming off a 2nd place finish at the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro. This fact gives him momentum against competitors who did not perform as well at the very same venue this coming period. That said, John John has never won an event at Teahupoʻo. We’re not making predictions for the silver medal, right?
Gabriel Medina: +200
Representing: BRA
WCT Ranking: No.8
Medina had one of the biggest standout performances at the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro. While he came in 3rd, he is one of the most winningest surfers at Teahupo’o. Medina has made the finals here in Tahiti a total of six times through his career, and won the event both in 2014 and 2018. While the 3-time WSL CT World Champion can win anything in all conditions, it will work in the goofy-footer’s favor if the infamous left ends up on the smaller side of the Surfline forecast. Should the swell drop mid-event, shift your wagers to Medina if you don’t bet on him to win from the onset.
Kauli Vaast: +800
Representing: FRA
WCT Ranking: Nil
The flag on his Summer Olympics singlet may be the tricolore of France, but the 22 year old was born in Tahiti and raised to tame the beast known as Teahupo’o. While the young goofy-footer has gained renown for his free surfing at the wave, the uninitiated may wonder if he can bring the same thunder to the competitive arena. Kauli Vaast came in 5th as a replacement wildcard at the 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro, came in 2nd at the same event in 2023 and 2019, and won the event in 2018. So yes, the local has what it takes to take down the world’s elite. Bet on the Tahitian accordingly.
SLEEPERS
Griffin Colapinto: +900
Representing: USA
WCT Ranking: No.2
Don’t sleep on this sleeper pick to win the 2024 Summer Olympics surfing competition. Griffin Colapinto exudes the confidence and levelheadedness needed to slog through the event should the weeklong swell be temperamental. His prior results at Teahupo’o are what you might expect of a traditional sleeper prediction (see below) but the San Clemente kid matures with each passing year and is ready to compete in the grandest stage of all for the sake of his country. Here are Colapinto’s collective results in Tahiti:
- 17th in 2024
- 9th in 2023
- 9th in 2022
- 9th in 2019
- 25th in 2018
Priced at +900 to win the gold medal, you get $900 back on a Benjamin bet for Griffin.
Jordy Smith: +1,800
Representing: RSA
WCT Ranking: No.7
In what’s probably his swan song season, veteran Jordy Smith is experiencing a rebirth in 2024. He has a string of strong results on the CT and finds himself within striking range of making the Top 5 and scoring an invite the WSL Finals in September. We credit the Summer Olympics for the resurrection of the South African. What better way to close out a long career than with a gold medal around the neck? Heck, he may indeed win the thing, as Smith has accumulated results at Teahupo’o through his years on the CT. 9th place or better finishes include the following seasons:
- 9th in 2024
- 9th in 2023
- 9th in 2022
- 3rd in 2019
- 3rd in 2017
- 9th in 2016
- 9th in 2013
That’s a lot of nines. Bettors who follow numerology may note that as the last single-digit in the counting sequence, the number 9 signifies completion and the end of a cycle. This aligns with what we expect to be the final run in Jordy’s career, making a podium finish (maybe a gold medal) the storied ending the SAFFA deserves.
LONG SHOT
Alonso Correa: +20,000
Representing: PER
WCT Ranking: Nil
Peru may not have much representation on the WSL Championship Tour, but the country is known for birthing some of the world’s hardest-charging barrel riders. Alonso Correa is one of them, and has put in so much heavy left-handed tube time that he made the Stab Edit Of The Year as The Most Barreled Man of 2023.
Stab Edit Of The Year: The Most Barreled Man Of 2023, Surely
With +20,000 odds, Correa is ready to break the bookmakers. A $100 wager gets you $20K!
2024 SUMMER OLYMPICS SURFING MEN’S WINNER PREDICTION
Local Tahitian Kauli Vaast wins the gold medal 2024 Summer Olympics surfing Men’s division.
Summer Olympics Surfing Predictions | Women’s
FAVORITES
Vahine Fierro: +300
Representing: FRA
WCT Ranking: Nil
Tahitian Vahine Fierro made a BIG name for herself after winning the 2024 Tahiti Pro as a wildcard this past May. Although, nearly everyone in-the-know had her picked to win the event after coming in 3rd at Teahupo’o in 2023 and 2022. Her Tahiti Pro result catapulted her to the top spot with U.S. sportsbooks as the odds-on-favorite to win the gold medal this summer. Winning gold at her home break would break the internet connection around Papeete, but she will have to get through the Summer Olympics previous gold medalist in Women’s surfing first. Keep reading.
Carissa Moore: +400
Representing: USA
WCT Ranking: Nil
Carissa Moore essentially retired from the 2024 WSL Championship Tour to focus on preparation for the Summer Olympics. Next to local Vahine Fierro, the 5-time Women’s CT World Champion has been putting in more hours at Teahupo’o than any other Women’s competitor. Moore realized the necessity of doing so, as the regular-footer has struggled with big lefts in the past. This is something that goes noticed as her best performances at Pipeline events have generally been at Backdoor (not Pipe). The Ambassador of Aloha has made it clear that her competitive career is pretty much in the history books. You’d better believe that she wants to leave it all behind with back-to-back gold medals at the Summer Olympic Games.
SLEEPERS
Caitlin Simmers: +600
Representing: USA
WCT Ranking: No.1
Caitlin Simmers set the professional surfing world on fire with her WSL CT season beginning win at the Lexus Pipe Pro in prime conditions. This primed her to perform well at other heavy wave events this year. She claimed a 5th at Sunset Beach and a 5th at Margaret River. While she only managed a 9th at the 2024 Tahiti Pro, the result is of little consequence as she came in 2nd at the event in 2023. In fact, nothing seems to phase this 18-year old firecracker. While competitors will crumble under the pressure of representing their country at the world’s gnarliest wave, Caitlin will remain Caitlin. Put some money on the Oceanside CA native.
Tatiana Weston-Webb: +800
Representing: BRA
WCT Ranking: No.7
A lot of experts had written off Tatiana Weston-Webb after seeing her career wind down somewhat over the last two CT seasons. But then she did this at Teahupo’o in May:
Do you really need more than that to justify her place as a sleeper pick on this list of Summer Olympics surfing predictions?
LONG SHOT
Sol Aguirre: +12,000
Representing: PER
WCT Ranking: Nil
As with the Men’s division, we conclude Women’s predictions with a Peruvian. Like with others competing for gold in Women’s surfing at the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, 4-time South American Juniors Champion, Sol Aguirre, had no prior experience at Teahupo’o. But at the ISA Athlete Training Camp she shined with an impressive barrel that put her competitors on notice. She’s a long shot for certain, but all it takes is a few more waves like the one she scored at the ISA Athlete Training Camp and she could make it to the top of the podium. $100 gets you $12,000 if she does (and you bet on it).
2024 SUMMER OLYMPICS SURFING WOMEN’S WINNER PREDICTION
Carissa Moore completes her competitive career by winning back-to-back gold medals in the Women’s division in surfing for the Summer Olympic Games.
*All Olympic surfing odds are listed as moneyline wagers. Odds will be updated as the Summer Olympic Games approach, and will also be updated in “real-time” after each Round on the schedule is completed. Check back often for updates.
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